Novibet · Weekly · Dec 2025 – Feb 2026
Early Win – First Deep Dive
An interactive analysis of Early Win and Cash Out feature adoption, bet-level usage, and staking behaviour across countries and VIP segments over an 8-week rolling window.
Adoption Rate
User Level
  • Share of users (bettors) who used Early Win at least once, during the week
  • Share of users (bettors) who used Cash Out at least once, during the week
  • Feature overlap between Early Win & Cash Out
  • Weekly trend across countries and comparison (Greece, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador, Ireland)
  • VIP vs Non-VIP breakdown
Feature Rate
Bet Level
  • How often Early Win and Cash Out are triggered per bet
  • Weekly trend across countries and comparison (Greece, Brazil)
  • Split by bet type (Bet Builder Combo, Multiple, System, All)
  • VIP vs Non-VIP breakdown
Stakes & Legs
Bet Level
  • Average stake for Early Win, Cash Out, and all bets
  • Average leg count by feature and bet type
  • Weekly trend across countries and comparison (Greece, Brazil)
  • VIP vs Non-VIP breakdown

Key Findings

1 CO adoption is 3–6× higher than EW across all six markets
2 Brazil has the largest untapped pool — 39.4% of VIPs cash out but don't use EW
3 VIPs adopt EW at 2–2.6× the Non-VIP rate in every market
4 Mexico leads with 19.4% VIP and 10.7% Non-VIP EW adoption — the highest anywhere
5 8-week adoption trend is flat everywhere — no organic growth without intervention
6 Ireland trails every metric, with Non-VIP EW at just 3.7%

Greece

Greece — Key Takeaways

Cash Out dominates; Early Win remains niche.
Cash Out adoption is 3–4× higher than Early Win across both segments.

Early Win users already know Cash Out — not the reverse.
Most EW adopters also use Cash Out (~43% Non-VIP, ~67% VIP), but the vast majority of Cash Out users have never tried Early Win.

VIPs engage more with both features.
VIP adoption is roughly double Non-VIP for both features, with higher overlap — VIPs are more willing to experiment.

Biggest growth lever: convert Cash Out users to Early Win.
Over 80% of Cash Out users haven't tried EW — and they already understand acting on a live bet.

Brazil

Brazil — Key Takeaways

Widest CO/EW gap of any market — Cash Out is 5× larger.
EW adoption sits at just ~3.4% Non-VIP while CO reaches ~18%; among VIPs, CO hits ~46% vs EW at ~9%.

EW users know Cash Out, but not the reverse.
Over half of EW adopters also use CO (~53% Non-VIP, ~73% VIP), yet only ~10% of CO users have tried Early Win.

VIPs amplify both features equally — the 5× gap persists.
VIP adoption is ~2.5× Non-VIP for both EW and CO, but the ratio between them stays flat, unlike markets where VIPs narrow the gap.

Largest untapped cross-sell pool: ~16% are CO-only users.
Brazil's massive CO base combined with the lowest EW penetration makes it the highest-potential market for EW conversion campaigns.

Mexico

Mexico — Key Takeaways

Narrowest CO/EW gap — Mexico leads Early Win adoption.
CO is only ~2× EW here (vs 3–5× elsewhere). Non-VIP EW at ~10.7% and VIP EW at ~19.4% are the highest of any market.

Strongest feature overlap — users engage with both.
~28% of Non-VIP CO users also try EW (vs ~16% in Greece, ~10% in Brazil). VIP overlap reaches ~13.5%, the highest anywhere.

VIPs reach ~19% EW adoption — proof the feature can scale.
Mexico VIPs show that with the right product-market fit, nearly 1 in 5 users will adopt Early Win alongside Cash Out.

Mexico is the model market — study what drives higher EW uptake.
Its unique position (highest EW, highest overlap, narrowest gap) suggests product or market factors that other countries should replicate.

Chile

Chile — Key Takeaways

Moderate CO/EW ratio (~2.7×) with balanced user split.
Non-VIP EW sits at ~7.8% vs CO at ~21%. EW-only (~3.8%) and overlap (~4%) are nearly equal — a rare balanced split.

EW attracts a distinct user type, not just CO spillover.
The near 50/50 split between EW-only and overlap users in Non-VIP suggests EW appeals to a segment that doesn't naturally gravitate to Cash Out.

VIP overlap surges — most VIP EW users also Cash Out.
VIP overlap reaches ~10.9% (of ~14.9% EW adoption), meaning ~73% of VIP EW users are dual-feature adopters.

Non-VIP "EW-only" cohort is a unique conversion opportunity.
Unlike other markets, Chile's EW-only users (~3.8%) are sizable — introducing them to Cash Out could lift overall engagement.

Ecuador

Ecuador — Key Takeaways

CO/EW ratio (~2.6×) mirrors Greece, but at higher absolute rates.
Non-VIP EW is ~8.9% and CO is ~23%; both exceed Greece's levels while maintaining a similar relative gap.

VIP overlap doesn't scale like other markets.
EW-to-CO crossover is ~54% in Non-VIP and ~55% in VIP — virtually flat, unlike Greece or Brazil where VIPs show a much higher crossover jump.

Highest "EW-Only" VIP share (~5.8%) — some VIPs prefer EW exclusively.
Ecuador VIPs who use EW without CO are notably more common than in other markets, suggesting a distinct user preference.

Understand what drives exclusive EW loyalty among VIPs.
Ecuador's unique EW-only cohort could reveal product features or betting behaviours that make EW independently valuable — insights for other markets.

Ireland

Ireland — Key Takeaways

Lowest adoption for both features — a market penetration challenge.
Non-VIP EW (~3.7%) and CO (~10.2%) are the lowest of any country; even VIP CO (~27.8%) trails other markets' Non-VIP rates.

The CO/EW ratio (~2.8×) is normal — adoption is low for both, not skewed.
Unlike Brazil (5× gap), Ireland's challenge isn't EW specifically — it's overall feature engagement across the board.

VIP crossover behaves like mature markets.
~71% of VIP EW users also Cash Out, on par with Chile and Brazil — VIPs who try EW are equally engaged here.

Priority: drive broader feature awareness before optimising cross-sell.
With both features under-penetrated, Ireland needs visibility and education campaigns rather than EW-to-CO conversion tactics.

All Countries

All Countries — Key Takeaways

Cash Out consistently 2–5× higher than Early Win — the gap is universal.
Average CO adoption is ~17% Non-VIP and ~41% VIP; EW sits at ~5.3% and ~10.8% respectively.

Mexico is the clear standout — narrowest gap, highest EW, highest overlap.
With EW at ~10.7% Non-VIP and ~19.4% VIP, Mexico proves the feature can reach meaningful scale; its success factors deserve investigation.

VIP status doubles adoption but widens the CO/EW ratio.
The gap grows from ~3.2× Non-VIP to ~3.8× VIP on average — VIPs disproportionately favour Cash Out, making EW's VIP growth an untapped lever.

Converting just 10% of CO-only users would roughly double EW adoption.
CO-only users average ~14.5% Non-VIP and ~33% VIP — they already understand acting on a live bet, making them the ideal EW target.

Key Findings

1 CO per-bet rate is 3–6× higher than EW — the user-level gap carries through to bet level
2 VIP status lifts CO bet rates but EW stays flat at ~1.7% in both markets
3 EW bets carry 40–55% more legs — the feature appeals to accumulator builders
4 Brazil VIP EW bet rate grew +65% in 8 weeks despite flat user adoption

Greece

Greece — Key Takeaways

CO bet rate is 3–4× higher than EW across all bet types.
Overall CO is ~7.0% Non-VIP and ~7.4% VIP vs EW at ~2.2% and ~1.7% respectively.

VIPs Cash Out more per bet but use Early Win less.
VIP EW bet rate (~1.7%) is actually lower than Non-VIP (~2.2%) — VIP status boosts CO usage at the bet level, not EW.

System bets have the widest CO/EW gap (~5.4× Non-VIP, ~8.5× VIP).
System bets reach ~8.6% CO Non-VIP and ~9.4% VIP, suggesting complex bet types favour Cash Out disproportionately.

EW engagement is bet-type agnostic — it doesn't spike for any category.
EW rates hover at 1.6–2.4% regardless of bet type, while CO varies more — implying EW usage is driven by user behaviour, not bet construction.

Brazil

Brazil — Key Takeaways

Steepest CO/EW gap at bet level — 5–6× across all views.
Non-VIP CO is ~9.2% vs EW at ~1.7% (~5.4×); VIP CO rises to ~10.1% while EW stays flat at ~1.7% (~5.9×).

EW bet rate is identical across VIP and Non-VIP (~1.7%).
Unlike user-level adoption (which doubles for VIPs), bet-level EW usage is flat — VIPs who adopt EW don't apply it to more bets.

BetBuilderCombo drives the highest CO rates (~10–11%).
Complex combo bets see the steepest CO engagement in both segments, while EW is lowest on this type (~1.3% Non-VIP).

Brazil's CO bet rates exceed Greece by ~30% — higher per-bet engagement.
At 9–10% vs Greece's 7–7.4%, Brazil's bettors Cash Out more frequently per bet, not just per user, deepening the EW gap.

All Countries (Only Greece and Brazil)

All Countries — Key Takeaways

CO dominates at bet level in both markets — but the gap varies.
Greece's CO/EW ratio is ~3.2× while Brazil's is ~5.4×; Brazil bettors Cash Out more frequently per bet (9.2% vs 7.0%).

EW bet rates are remarkably similar (~1.7–2.2%) despite very different user adoption.
User-level adoption diverges (Greece 6% vs Brazil 3.4%), but per-bet EW usage converges — adoptive users apply EW at similar rates.

VIP status lifts CO bet rates but leaves EW flat.
VIP CO rises to ~7.4% (Greece) and ~10.1% (Brazil) vs Non-VIP, while EW stays at ~1.7% in both — the per-bet VIP effect is CO-only.

Complex bets amplify CO but not EW — bet type matters for Cash Out only.
System and BetBuilderCombo show the highest CO rates; EW is flat across types, suggesting EW triggers are independent of bet complexity.

Key Findings

1 EW bets average 8.4–9.7 legs (40–55% more than market average); CO bets carry the highest stakes
2 CO is the revenue anchor — Greek VIP CO averages €52.61 per bet
3 Two bettor profiles: EW users build long, lower-stake slips; CO users bet short slips with higher stakes
4 VIPs stake ~4× more than Non-VIPs but leg counts stay the same across both segments

Greece

Greece — Key Takeaways

EW is the long-accumulator feature — ~8.4 legs vs ~6 average.
EW bets have ~40% more legs than all bets in both segments, while CO bets are closer to average (~5.5 Non-VIP, ~5.1 VIP).

Cash Out captures the big-stake bets — EW sits below average.
Non-VIP CO stakes are ~€14.3 (~1.7× average), while EW stakes (~€7.5) are actually below the €8.3 market average.

VIPs bet 4× larger but the structural pattern holds.
VIP stakes scale up proportionally (CO ~€52.6, EW ~€38, all ~€32) while leg counts remain virtually identical to Non-VIP.

EW appeals to complexity-seekers; CO appeals to value-seekers.
EW users build longer, lower-stake slips; CO users bet shorter slips with higher stakes — two distinct bettor profiles.

Brazil

Brazil — Key Takeaways

Brazil builds longer accumulators than Greece across the board.
EW bets average ~9.7 legs (vs Greece ~8.4), all bets ~7.2 (vs ~6.0) — Brazil's market naturally favours more selections per slip.

EW stakes match the market average — no premium, unlike CO.
Non-VIP EW stakes (~€4.3) sit at parity with the €4.3 average, while CO stakes (~€7.3) are ~1.7× higher — CO is the "big bet" feature.

VIPs play shorter slips but stake ~4× more.
VIP EW drops to ~8.9 legs (from ~9.7 Non-VIP) while stakes jump to ~€25.6 — VIPs trade complexity for bigger wagers.

Lower nominal stakes than Greece — but the same structural pattern.
Brazil's overall stakes are ~50% of Greece's, yet the CO > EW > All hierarchy and VIP multiplier (~4×) are identical across both markets.

All Countries (Only Greece and Brazil)

All Countries — Key Takeaways

EW = long slips, CO = big stakes — the pattern is universal.
In both markets, EW bets have the most legs (~8.4–9.7) while CO bets carry the highest stakes (~€7.3–14.3 Non-VIP).

Brazil builds longer accumulators; Greece bets bigger per slip.
Brazil adds ~1.2 more legs across all categories, but Greece stakes are ~2× higher — a clear market-level difference in betting style.

VIPs shorten slips slightly but stake ~4× more — in both markets.
VIP leg counts dip below Non-VIP, but the ~4× VIP stake multiplier is remarkably consistent across Greece and Brazil.

Two distinct user profiles emerge: EW = complexity-seeker, CO = value-seeker.
These profiles hold across both markets and segments — EW and CO serve fundamentally different bettor needs.

What's Next — Recommended Actions

Based on the key findings surfaced in each tab, these are the highest-impact initiatives to pursue next — ordered by potential ROI and feasibility.

A

Launch Brazil VIP EW Cross-Sell Campaign

Target the 39.4% of VIPs who cash out but never use Early Win. They already engage with in-play features — EW is a natural extension. Use in-app nudges, bet slip prompts, and CRM messaging.

High Priority
Brazil
B

Study the Mexico Playbook

Mexico has 2–3× the EW adoption of peer markets. Investigate what's different: UI placement? Local promotions? Sport mix? Replicate winning patterns in Brazil and Greece.

High Priority
Best Practice
C

Design Active Intervention Experiments

Flat adoption proves organic growth won't happen. Run A/B tests on product placement (bet slip integration, post-bet pop-ups) and marketing pushes (first-EW bonuses, educational content).

Medium Priority
Required
D

VIP-First Rollout Strategy

VIPs are 2–2.6× more receptive to EW. Pilot every new EW initiative with VIP segments first — faster feedback loops, higher success rates, bigger revenue impact per user.

Medium Priority
Segment
E

Position EW for Accumulator Builders

EW users build 40–55% more legs. Tailor EW marketing to complexity-seekers: highlight partial win protection on multi-leg bets, not simple singles.

Medium Priority
Product
F

Protect & Optimise Cash Out Revenue

CO bets carry the highest stakes (€52.61 avg VIP in Greece). While growing EW, ensure CO experience remains frictionless — it's the current revenue anchor.

Ongoing
Revenue
G

Investigate Ireland Underperformance

Ireland trails every metric consistently. Run a market-specific audit: check feature visibility, sport coverage, competitive landscape, and regulatory constraints.

Low Priority
Investigation
H

Track Brazil VIP Bet-Rate Momentum

Brazil VIP EW bet rate grew +65% in 8 weeks. Set up weekly monitoring dashboards to confirm this isn't seasonal, and to measure impact of any new interventions.

Ongoing
Monitoring